I wonder how quickly posting here will stop?
I don’t write consistently, so when I logged in this morning, I ran across a post on NFLX I made, but didn’t publish last year. And I instantly knew it was an awful post with misguided logic. Since I wrote an article on Netflix (NFLX) titled “Thoughts On NFLX”, I’ve learned more about cash flows….
Last year I posted about the Discovery/WarnerBros merger. At the time, I calculated that DISCK was a buy at $23.30. We are still only a year into the merger process, but clearly I’ve been wrong so far. The stock is currently trading at $11.85, a loss of 50%. So what’s happened so far? The first…
The current conventional wisdom is that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates when the economy needs to be stimulated, and it should raise interest rates when the economy/inflation needs to be slowed down. As of right now we have 8% inflation, so the Federal Reserve is rightfully raising interest rates in a quest to…
Recently I have started my first short position. While I conceptually know how this process works, I’ve never sold a stock short. So, in the name of learning, I’ve sold one single share of a certain stock short. I believe that the stock has been overvalued and is still overvalued. Of course, the market can…
Recently, I’ve listened to Warren Buffett and Howard Marks tell me that I really shouldn’t be picking stocks. Warren states he has met maybe 10 people who should be picking stocks, the rest should be buying indexes. What makes it worse, is that Warren Buffett also doesn’t believe in efficient markets. So, they are inefficient…
I was a kid in the 80’s. I don’t remember the last time America had an inflation rate much higher than a savings rate. Unfortunately, inflation is now running at 7.9%, and short term treasuries are paying 0.63%. Holding treasuries pays a real rate of -7.27% right now. At this pace, in five years you’ll…
When a company charges a customer for something, how much of that money they get to keep is the profit margin. If you buy something for $1, and the company’s net income goes up by six cents, the profit margin is 6%. If their net income goes up fifteen cents, the profit margin is 15%….
As I’ve continued to read and learn about investing, I think I’ve started to form my own identity. Correctly or not, terms such as “value investor”, “growth investor”, and “deep value investor” are often used. However, something as simple as value investing could be done multiple ways. You could buy companies that are temporarily mispriced…
When you buy a stock, you are buying a company’s future cash flows. You believe that company is going to make more money in the future than you are paying for it right now. Everyone buying a stock is placing a bet on the future. The question I’m asking is, “How far into the future…
I’ve been waiting for a few months now for some great companies to come down to fair value or better. At least what I consider fair value. While I wait, I’ve got some cash ready in case the stocks I am watching hit prices I want. In fact, I have placed some Good-Til-Canceled orders for…